Matolwandile M Mtotywa, Matshediso Mohapeloa
Abstract
The decline in the manufacturing sector in South Africa poses significant challenges to economic growth and employment, thus creating an urgent need to understand the dynamics that influence performance in this sector. The purpose of the study was to investigate the impact of operational uncertainty in manufacturing. This study was based on a post-positivist paradigm, collecting empirical data from 22 experts with experience in the manufacturing sector who provided qualitative input for quantitative modelling. The results indicate on average that the dimension of operational uncertainty resulted in a short-term to significant manufacturing impact on eight key determinants of the manufacturing operation. These determinants include supply chain disruption (SCD), increase in the cost of production (ICP), market access restrictions (MAR), fluctuation of currency value (FCV), change in customer demand (CCD), restricted labour availability and productivity (RLA), quality of the product (QoP) and compromised knowledge management (CKM). The greatest impact came from pandemic turbulence (PBT), growing geopolitical tension (GPT), generational work behaviour and ethics (GWB), and uncertainty of energy stability and security (ESS). A hierarchical cluster analysis confirmed with three clusters with the highest impact being GPT and PBT, mixed/ selective being ESS, process capability and variation (PVC), cost-of-living-driven consumer behavioural change (CLC), and entrenchment power of large firms (EPL), and low to moderate being policy and regulatory uncertainty (PRU), GWB, and skills for future industrial work (SFW). This study provides a diagnostic post-positivist analysis of operational uncertainty in South African manufacturing. Research contributes with context-specific insights and advances theoretical and methodological understanding of uncertainty modelling, advancing contingency theory. The findings also offer practical guidance to industry leaders and policymakers on how to navigate complex disruptions due to emerging operational uncertainty dimensions.